OI: Radical right parties should place a higher degree of salience on cultural issues, particularly multiculturalism, nationalism and immigration, compared to other parties.

Association between party families and issue salience, OLS models with country and year fixed-effects:

tinytable_gyppqi7p1vmsizx791oy
Salience of cultural issues (aggregate) Salience of multiculturalism
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
Reference category: radical left
Christian Democrat 5.598** 0.427
(1.301) (0.762)
Conservative 4.607** 1.878+
(1.253) (0.904)
Radical right 10.927*** 8.479***
(1.217) (1.338)
Green 12.774** 0.162
(3.376) (0.900)
Socialist 0.517 0.401
(0.577) (0.756)
Liberal 1.765 0.732
(1.019) (0.924)
Agrarian center 3.610+ 1.539
(1.630) (0.992)
No family -0.563 0.774
(1.969) (0.764)
Regionalist 5.646 6.423*
(3.390) (2.129)
pervote -0.033 0.005
(0.030) (0.023)
Num.Obs. 646 646
R2 0.358 0.296
R2 Adj. 0.304 0.237
AIC 4523.0 4197.2
BIC 4751.0 4425.2
RMSE 7.41 5.76
Std.Errors by: factor(country) by: factor(country)
FE: factor(country) X X
FE: year X X

Coefficient plot:

OI: Right-wing parties that do not belong to the radical right should place a higher emphasis on cultural issues compared to left-wing parties.

OLS of party issue salience on left-right position and vote share, excluding radical-right parties from the analysis:

tinytable_0y4n9cv10bshkd7zk48k
Salience of cultural issues (aggregate) Salience of multiculturalism
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
log_rile 2.200** 1.054*
(0.626) (0.421)
pervote -0.070 -0.026
(0.043) (0.031)
Num.Obs. 554 554
R2 0.262 0.171
R2 Adj. 0.201 0.103
AIC 3811.1 3413.0
BIC 3996.8 3598.7
RMSE 6.98 4.87
Std.Errors by: factor(country) by: factor(country)
FE: factor(country) X X
FE: year X X

Does the association between left-right position and multiculturalism salience differ across countries?

Predictions from OLS models of multiculturalism on left-right position, adjusting for vote share and including year fixed-effects:

Radical right success and mainstream parties’ issue emphasis

OI: The presence of a strong radical right party in the party system is associated with an increased emphasis on cultural issues by mainstream parties, and this association may be conditional on mainstream parties' left-right positions.

OLS of party issue salience on the vote share of the radical right at previous elections:

tinytable_3b6j2nhi2z11ysu4lwyd
Salience of multiculturalism
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
far_right_vote_lag 0.029
(0.058)
log_rile 1.311+
(0.706)
pervote 0.029
(0.031)
Num.Obs. 480
R2 0.654
R2 Adj. 0.298
AIC 2919.0
BIC 3937.4
RMSE 3.04
Std.Errors by: factor(party)
FE: factor(party) X
FE: year X

Do left and right-wing mainstream parties react differently to radical right success?

Note: all data are from the Manifesto project dataset: Lehmann, Pola, Simon Franzmann, Denise Al-Gaddooa, Tobias Burst, Christoph Ivanusch, Sven Regel, Felicia Riethmüller, et al. 2024. “Manifesto Project Dataset.” Manifesto Project. https://doi.org/10.25522/MANIFESTO.MPDS.2024A.